Tariffs are affecting consumer sentiment in ways that recall the Great Recession and the early days of the pandemic, according to researcher Gartner. As the state of tariffs remains in flux, analysts warn that marketers need to be prepared to respond to a 'one-two punch' scenario regarding U.S. consumer sentiment. With the economy poised for further bumpiness ahead of the recently extended Aug. 1 deadline for negotiating trade agreements, a consistent message around value and communicating a sense of empathy could be crucial to maintaining brand trust. U.S. shoppers aren’t feeling great in 2025, with 70% making significant changes to their habits, such as cooking more at home or purchasing smaller package sizes of fast-moving goods. While many are adopting savings behaviors typical of recessionary periods, affluent consumers are maintaining a sense of normalcy despite the souring mood. This could change if the ripple effects from tariffs, like price hikes and product shortages, come into sharper focus later in the year.
Gartner recommended that marketers revisit strategies from the Great Recession to prepare for tariff tumult. Feelings of job security are low, especially among young consumers, echoing the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Marketers are encouraged to focus less on outdated media plans and more on brand positioning. Many consumers are aware of U.S. trade policy and show a negative view of tariffs, with pessimism about the economy growing. Such negative sentiment could escalate if store shelves begin to empty, particularly detrimental during critical shopping periods. Marketers must remain consistent in brand messaging, as now is not the time to redefine values amidst changing market dynamics. They need to provide clarity and calm during this period of uncertainty, easing consumer anxiety around potential price changes due to tariffs.